What Short-Term Volatility Means for Your Plan

By Matt Held, CFP®

As many of you know, we usually do not spend much time commenting on day-to-day market moves because we believe more in staying invested than trying to predict short-term swings. Every once in a while, though, something comes across our desk that feels worth sharing.

This past Sunday, during some afternoon reading, I came across a piece that emphasized something important: no one, not even the experts, knows exactly what is going to happen in the short term during stressful and volatile periods like this. As Jerome Powell put it, “The thing I really want to emphasize is that nobody knows. The economic effect could be bigger. They could be smaller. They could be much smaller or much bigger. We just don’t know.”

I also found one chart especially interesting. It showed a survey of so-called experts on what they believed was the biggest tail risk facing the markets. Back in February, geopolitical conflict ranked fourth, behind an AI bubble, inflation, and a disorderly rise in bond yields.

Bar chart from BofA showing geopolitical conflict surging to the #1 tail risk in March 2026 at 37%

We are seeing that uncertainty play out in the market every day through sharp swings in prices. And this kind of short-term volatility is not new when fear and tension are high. Think back to 2023 and the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. Does anyone even remember how consuming that felt at the time? Here were the headlines over just a few days:

• 03/10/2023: CNBC — “Dow closes more than 300 points lower, posts worst week since June as Silicon Valley Bank collapse sparks selloff: Live updates”
• 03/13/2023: New York Times — “Stocks Wobble as Smaller Banks Plunge on Fears of Contagion”
• 03/13/2023: Business Insider — “US stocks shake off contagion fears to trade mixed amid hopes SVB crisis spurs Fed policy shift”
• 03/14/2023: CBS — “Bank stocks rise as Wall Street panic subsides”
• 03/15/2023: NPR — “Stocks drop as fears grow about the global banking system”
• 03/16/2023: MarketWatch — “U.S. stocks end sharply higher as big banks agree to deposit $30 billion with troubled lender First Republic Bank”

As Benjamin Graham famously said, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” In other words, short-term market moves are often driven by emotion, uncertainty, and shifting headlines. Over time, though, business value and earnings matter more.

Does that mean there is no action to take? Not necessarily. In fact, times like this can create planning opportunities.

• In periods of volatility, it often makes sense to look for tax-loss harvesting opportunities. That may be possible right now, even in parts of the bond market, with interest rates moving quickly.
• It may also be a good time to consider a Roth IRA conversion if IRA values are somewhat lower. A $50,000 conversion you were considering in January might only be $45,000 today, which means less taxable income to recognize.
• For taxable accounts, this may also create a chance to rebalance with less realized gain and less tax impact than would have existed a few months ago.
• And if you have cash to invest, today’s short-term rates are more attractive, which can make a dollar-cost averaging approach over the next three to six months worth considering.

The hardest part about markets like this is that the constant noise can make it feel like you need to react right away. Sometimes there is a smart move to make, but just as often the best step is to slow down, stay thoughtful, and focus on the bigger picture. The headlines will keep changing. A good plan should not.

Staying Grounded in a Changing Market

Periods like this can feel uncertain, but they’re also a reminder of why having a plan matters in the first place. While the headlines will continue to shift, a well-structured strategy is designed to navigate both calm and volatile environments.

If you’d like a second set of eyes on your current plan, or want to explore whether there are opportunities worth considering in today’s environment we at Clarity Wealth Management are here to help.

If you’re interested in a no-obligation, icebreaker call, schedule online here, call (513) 278-9420, or email Info@ClarityWealth.org.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. Should I make changes to my portfolio during market volatility?

Not always. While certain situations may present planning opportunities, reacting to short-term market movements can sometimes do more harm than good. It’s often more productive to evaluate decisions within the context of your long-term plan.

2. Can market downturns present any opportunities?

In some cases, yes. Periods of volatility can create opportunities such as tax-loss harvesting, rebalancing with less tax impact, or considering strategies like Roth IRA conversions. The key is approaching these decisions thoughtfully rather than reactively.

3. How can I tell if my financial plan is still on track?

The best way is to revisit your goals, timeline, and overall strategy. Market fluctuations are expected, but your plan should be built to account for them. A periodic review can help you feel confident everything still aligns with your objectives.

About Matt

Matt Held, CFP®, is the lead advisor and a founding partner of Clarity Wealth Management, a boutique company based in Cincinnati, OH. Since entering the industry in 2006, Matt has helped corporate executives, professionals, and business owners uncover opportunities and build long-term financial strategies. Driven by a desire to control his own future and create a lasting brand, Matt co-founded Clarity Wealth Management in 2012. His mission was to build a company that would provide truly personalized guidance—and become a legacy for his own family. Today, Clarity serves about 100 households and focuses on helping clients simplify and navigate complex financial decisions, particularly those involving equity compensation, tax planning, and executive retirement.

Matt’s approach is rooted in commitment, loyalty, and hard work. As a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional, he is deeply committed to long-term relationships and believes that clarity doesn’t mean predicting the future, but having the confidence that your plan can handle whatever comes your way.

Outside of work, Matt enjoys time with his wife, Abby, and their twins, Henry and Kinsley. Whether it’s watching sports (they love their Ohio State Buckeyes), hitting the slopes out West, or squeezing in a workout, he’s passionate about staying active and present. He’s also a proud graduate of Moeller High School and The Ohio State University. Matt holds Series 7 and 66 licenses, is licensed for health insurance, and earned his CFP® certification in 2012. He has been named a Five Star Wealth Manager in the Cincinnati area since 2013.* To learn more about Matt, connect with him on LinkedIn.

Clarity Wealth Management is located at 4243 Hunt Road, STE 429 Cincinnati, OH 45242.  (513) 278-9420

Securities and advisory services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. Fixed insurance products and services are separate from and not offered through Commonwealth.

*2013 - 2018, 2020 - 2025 Five Star Wealth Manager Award, created by Five Star Professional. The 2025 award was presented in September 2025 based on data gathered within 12 months preceding the issue date. Advisors pay a fee to hold out marketing materials. Not indicative of advisor’s future performance. Your experience may vary.